Tuesday 23 August 2022

FREEBIES, REVDIS AND MERIT GOODS

 Introduction

        In a recent public meeting, the Prime Minister (PM) of India stated, "Today in our country, attempts are being made to collect votes by distributing free revdis [an Indian sweet]".[i] This statement of the PM has started a great debate on "freebies" that are promised by political parties and financed out of public funds. The issue is important and has a critical bearing on the public finances of the central and state governments. It is, of course, moot whether this was the appropriate way to initiate a serious discussion on controlling wasteful government expenditures.

        It is not my intention to parse the PM's words and decipher the target of his barbs. I want to explicate the issue of using public funds to provide goods/services for the benefit of the country's people. It turns out that economics has a lot to say about these issues and offers a critique of governments that misuse public funds for partisan ends. A vast literature on clientelism[ii], patronage,[iii] and populism[iv] views the provision of goods and services by the government as an exchange in return for votes. Such quid pro quo with voters is, of course, frowned upon by economists. Dani Rodrik notes in his paper on populism: "Economists dislike populism, and for good reason. The term evokes irresponsible, unsustainable policies that often end in disaster and hurt most the ordinary people they purportedly aim to help".[v]

Economic Rational for Government Intervention

        Is there a strong economic rationale for the government to provide goods and services to the people? There is indeed one in a situation of market failure. The connotation of market failure relevant here is a situation where the market does not supply the required good or service (either at all or in adequate quantity) even though there may be a strong demand for it. Market failure is most acute in the context of pure public goods discussed in the Appendix below. The category of goods implicated the most in the discussion on freebies is what Musgrave (1959)[vi] called merit goods.

Merit Goods

        Musgrave (1959) defines merit goods as those goods which can be priced and provided by the market and yet the government provides additional quantities of such goods using public funds. Kirchgassner (2014) notes that this description of merit goods conflicts with the notion that individuals are best placed to judge what is in their best interest and, hence, should be left free to decide for themselves. [vii] But, he also points out that, in recent times, Behavioural Economics has documented a variety of anomalies where individuals do not act in their own interests.

        The pricing of merit goods and the extent of their availability are important issues. Recipients may receive a 100% subsidy (i.e. a price of zero) or may have to pay a part of the price of the good or service. Further, the availability of the good may be universal or may be restricted based on specific criteria. Governments provide such a good/service if it:

Improves the welfare of the recipient: In the absence of the provision of the merit good, the welfare of the recipient would fall below the minimum acceptable level.

Provides a social benefit to society: Even though the individual receives benefits from the merit good, the society also benefits, e.g. basic education or basic health care, which is often heavily subsidised.

        It is important to ask if the merit good should be universally available. For example, till 1997, India's public distribution system was universally accessible.[viii] However, the oft-quoted remark of former PM, Rajiv Gandhi that only 15 paise of every rupee meant for the poor reaches the intended beneficiary[ix] led to a shift towards a better-targeted approach. The wasteful government expenditure due to the inclusion of undeserving beneficiaries (either through error or deliberately) in the coverage of merit goods gives urgency to the discussion on freebies.

        While much of the recent discussion has focused on freebies from the expenditure side, it is also important to consider tax revenues that are foregone, either on the grounds of welfare or social benefit. Arguments have been made that (a) personal income tax exemption limits should be increased to protect the welfare of the salaried groups[x] and (b) corporate income tax rates should be reduced to encourage corporates to use the income so saved for capital expenditure which has a social benefit.[xi]

Votes-Merit Goods Quid Pro Quo

        Standard economy theory seems to believe that, even though individuals may maximise their own welfare, these same individuals seek to maximise social welfare when they form the government. The public choice approach points out this contradiction and asserts that political parties will create policies to gain or retain power in the next elections. Keeping the public choice approach in mind, I note that (a) ruling political parties use public funds to provide merit goods to voters in the hope of harvesting votes, and (b) challenger political parties promise to provide merit goods if voted to power.

        An illustrative list of merit goods which satisfy the two reasons for their provision – welfare of recipient and/or social benefit – is the following:

1.      Subsidised or free education

2.      Subsidised or free health services

3.      Subsidised or free food

4.      Free vaccination programmes

5.      Ujwala Yojana for the provision of clean fuels (LPG)

6.      Mid-day meal scheme for school children

        How does one judge whether the provision of these merit goods has the intended effect? For example, the mid-day meal programme of Tamil Nadu was criticised for waste of government resources by diverting resources from other better uses.[xii] In short, the programme was criticised as a freebie. However, over the last few decades, it has been recognised as an essential intervention in improving nutrition and school enrollment. Likewise, the Ujwala Yojana may be criticised for not permanently weaning away households from traditional fuels which have an adverse impact on health (mainly of women) but can anyone challenge the welfare objectives of the scheme? [xiii]

        Does the provision of such merit goods yield political dividends to the ruling political party or a challenger party that promises such goods? A large amount of literature in this area has supported the view that economic factors influence voters.[xiv] Deshpande and others did find that voters rewarded the BJP for their welfare schemes, especially in the areas where the party was already strong.[xv]

        Whether voters reward political parties that promise them merit goods is a complex question that I do not explore here. Whatever the answer to that question, political parties will seek to exploit this possibility if they believe they may get even the slightest advantage from making such promises. Beyond promises of merit goods, political parties have also sought to attract votes by distributing sarees[xvi] and colour TVs.[xvii] How does one estimate what proportion of expenditure on goods and services provided by central and state governments has been on genuine merit goods and on freebies (i.e. goods which have neither a welfare dimension nor a social benefit dimension)? To the freebies component must also be added the expenditure incurred by deliberately including undeserving beneficiaries in the distribution of merit goods.

        Given the power to provide merit goods, the decision-making of political parties can also be influenced by lobbying. Special interest and lobbies will try to coax the ruling party to provide them with goods which may not have the qualities of merit goods or lobby to get cuts in tax rates.[xviii] It should be evident that, as the provision of merit goods and tax breaks expand, there is increasing stress on the government's public finances.

Conclusion

        Apart from the political fireworks that have erupted from the revdi swipe by the Prime Minister, the critical question is whether the problem of excessive promises of merit goods can be solved outside the sphere of politics and economics. From an economics point of view, the issue is clearly one of fiscal sustainability. An indiscriminate expansion of expenditure on undeserving merit goods may reduce the fiscal space available to the government and may crowd out other more essential expenditures. However, India has developed institutional mechanisms (albeit imperfect ones) to control irresponsible spending by governments. Fiscal Responsibility Legislation, passed by both central and state governments in India, is an important mechanism to usher in fiscal discipline.[xix] This legislation imposes limits on central and state governments' debt as well as on their deficits. In addition, the recommendations of the various Finance Commissions provide one more check on the fiscal performance of central and state governments.[xx] For instance, the Fifteenth Finance Commission's Report recommends grants to states based on specific performance indicators while also recommending limits on levels of debt and deficits.[xxi] [xxii]

        Beyond the institutional controls that may be imposed on governments, the voice of the electorate should be the most important, whereby governments are rewarded or punished based on their performance. A political party that makes bombastic, non-credible promises to the voters will lose its credibility in the electoral market, while a party that delivers on its promises will gain the trust of the voters. After all, this is an essential function of elections. I write this bearing in mind that elections are not necessarily won or lost based on a rational evaluation of performance and that ideological factors may also play a significant role. Bryan Kaplan notes that voters are often irrational and sometimes selectively so: "We habitually tune out unwanted information on subjects we don't care about" (p.2).[xxiii] Hence, voters might be forgiving of a political party that matches their ideology, and they may turn a blind eye to its poor performance.

        The PIL currently being heard in the Supreme Court in connection with freebies is a dead end, given that it might be impossible to define a freebie or distinguish it from a merit good. A Supreme Court judgement deciding what governments can or cannot spend on will play havoc with the democratic system in India. It will tie the hands of governments for the foreseeable future and reduce the flexibility and discretion that may be critical for policy formulation. Imagine the Indian government wasting precious resources and time trying to convince the judiciary that free vaccination against COVID was not a freebie! Any intervention by the Supreme Court on this issue will constitute extreme judicial overreach.

 

APPENDIX

Pure Public Goods

        The category of goods known as pure public goods must be provided by the government even in the most capitalist economies. The presence of public goods leads to complete market failure, and the supply of such goods will be zero if left to the market. Why is this so? Two qualities characterise a pure public good:[xxiv]

Non-rivalness in consumption: More than one person can consume the same unit of a good at the same point of time. For example, numerous persons can stand under a street light and receive its benefits at the same point time. The good is not depleted or exhausted in the process of consumption

 Non-exclusion: It is impossible or very costly to exclude individuals from consuming a good even if they do not pay. Imagine getting individuals to pay for a street light every time they pass under it. Exclusion may be costly in some cases: you need turnstiles and ticket-checkers to prevent individuals from using the train services without paying for them.

        When both of these qualities are present, no individual consumer will have an incentive to volunteer payment for the good; hence, no private producer can cover the cost of providing such goods.[xxv] In such cases, the government must provide these goods. Please note that a distinction is being made between producing a good and providing it. The classic example of a pure public good is defence services. But, even in this case, private producers may produce the defence equipment that is sold to the government, which, in turn, provides defence services to the people. Obviously, such goods cannot be termed as freebies or revdis. A political party that does not commit to providing such goods will severely compromise the welfare of its people. A complex question I do not explore is how the government decides how much of the public good to provide.[xxvi]



[i] Express News Service (2022) PM slams freebie politics: Revdi culture dangerous, need to end it, https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/lucknow/pm-slams-freebie-politics-revdi-culture-dangerous-need-to-end-it-8034057/

[ii] Pranab Bardhan and Dileep Mookerjee (2016) https://edi.opml.co.uk/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/EDI-PF-PAPER-10.III_.5-Bardhan-and-Mookherjee-1.pdf

[iii] Naseemullah (2021) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14662043.2021.1910397

[iv] Dani Rodrik (2018) Is Populism Necessarily Bad Economics?, AEA Papers and Proceedings 2018, 108: 196–199, https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/dani-rodrik/files/is_populism_necessarily_bad_economics.pdf

[v] Dani Rodrik (2018), page 196.

[vi] Musgrave R.A. (1959) The theory of public finance : a study in public economy, McGraw-Hill, New York

[vii] Kirchgassner, G. (2014) Soft Paternalism, Merit Goods, and Normative Individualism, https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/96867/1/cesifo_wp4688.pdf

[viii] Swati Narayan (2021) Time for Universal Public Distribution System: Food Mountains and Pandemic Hunger in India, Indian Journal of Human Development, https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/09737030211049007

[ix] Press Trust of India (2017) ‘Only 15 paise reaches the needy’: SC quotes Rajiv Gandhi in its Aadhaar verdict, Hindustan Times, https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/only-15-paise-reaches-the-needy-sc-quotes-rajiv-gandhi-in-its-aadhaar-verdict/story-I8dniDGXF6ksulggTDgb9L.html

[x] Rituraj Baruah (2022) Increase in income tax exemption limit among top expectations from Budget: KPMG, Live Mint, https://www.livemint.com/budget/news/increase-in-income-tax-exemption-limit-among-top-expectations-from-budget-kpmg-11642780834832.html

[xi] Aditya Murlidharan and Prasanna Tantri (2022) Corporate tax cuts do boost investments, Hindu Business Line, https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/corporate-tax-cuts-do-boost-investments/article64938246.ece

[xii]  Padmini Swaminathan, J. Jeyaranjan, R. Sreenivasan and K. Jayashree (2004) Tamil Nadu's Midday Meal Scheme: Where Assumed Benefits Score over Hard Data, Economic and Political Weekly , Oct. 30 - Nov. 5, 2004, Vol. 39, No. 44 (Oct. 30 - Nov. 5, 2004), pp. 4811-4821, https://www.jstor.org/stable/4415741#metadata_info_tab_contents

[xiii] Abhishek Mishra (2022) Ujjwala scheme beneficiaries in UP resort to old cooking methods as LPG prices skyrocket, India Today, https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/ujjwala-scheme-beneficiaries-up-old-cooking-methods-lpg-prices-skyrocket-1972948-2022-07-07

[xiv] Gebhard Kirchgässner (2016) : Voting and Popularity, CESifo Working Paper, No. 6182, Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich, https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/149269/1/cesifo1_wp6182.pdf

[xv] Rajeshwari Deshpande, Louise Tillin, and KK Kailash (2019) The BJP’s Welfare Schemes: Did They Make a Difference in the 2019 Elections? Studies in Indian Politics. 2019;7(2):219-233, https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/2321023019874911

[xvi] Ashish Pandey (2014) EC says no to Bathukamma saree distribution in Telangana, India Today, https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/trs-kcr-bathukamma-saree-distribution-scheme-telangana-ec-congress-1355877-2018-10-04

[xvii] PTI (2011) EC orders stoppage of free colour TV distribution in TN, The Hindu, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/EC-orders-stoppage-of-free-colour-TV-distribution-in-TN/article14944523.ece

[xviii] See Mancur Olson (1971) Logic of Collective Action, Harvard University Press, Harvard

[xix] PRS Legislative Research (2017) Report Summary – FRBM Review Committee, https://prsindia.org/files/policy/policy_committee_reports/1493207354_FRBM%20Review%20Committee%20Report%20Summary.pdf

[xx] Finance Commission (undated) Finance Commissions – A Historical Perspective, https://fincomindia.nic.in/ShowContent.aspx?uid1=2&uid2=1&uid3=0&uid4=0&uid5=0&uid6=0&uid7=0

[xxi] Finance Commission (2020) Finance Commission in COVID Times: Report for 2021-26, https://fincomindia.nic.in/ShowContent.aspx?uid1=3&uid2=0&uid3=0&uid4=0&uid5=0&uid6=0&uid7=0

[xxii] PRS Legislative Research (2021) Report of the 15th Finance Commission for 2021-26, https://prsindia.org/policy/report-summaries/report-15th-finance-commission-2021-26

[xxiii] Bryan Kaplan (2007) The Myth of the Rational Voter, Princeton University Press, Princeton

[xxiv] Julian Reiss (2021) Public Goods", The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Fall 2021 Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.), https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/fall2021/entries/public-goods/

[xxv] The two qualities of pure public goods mentioned above need not be present at the same time and this gives rise to a variety of goods as detailed in the table below:

Characteristics

Rivalness in Consumption

Non-rivalness in Consumption

Exclusion

Private Goods (e.g. ice cream, masala dosa)

Club goods (Fitness centre, train/plane journey)

Non-exclusion

Common resource stock (e.g. groundwater, fish stock)

Pure public good (e.g. defence services, street lights)

 [xxvi] Dennis Mueller (2014) Public Choice, Social Choice, and Political Economy, https://crem-doc.univ-rennes1.fr/wp/2014/2014-03-ccr.pdf. Mueller provides a discussion of a variety of mechanisms that may be used to determine the quantity of public goods.

Wednesday 10 August 2022

Inflation in India


In a recent interview on 10 June 2022[i] with Karan Thapar, the former Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Krishnamurthy Subramanian strongly defended the performance of the government. It was a wide-ranging interview, and I am not going to comment on all the issues that were discussed. I will confine myself to just one, namely, inflation.

Inflation

Subramanian accepted that Indian inflation was high but pointed out that it is important to compare India’s inflation performance with that of the US and Europe. If this comparison is carried out, it will be seen that India was not doing too badly. The gist of his argument was that India’s average inflation over the long run (from 1960 till date) was 7.5% per annum, while the current rate of inflation is at 7.8%, which, according to Subramanian, is just 4% higher than the long-term average. For the US, the current rate of inflation is 8.5% compared to an average of 2%,[ii] which according to Subramanian, is 400% higher than the long-run average. It is a minor matter that it is 325% higher, but we can ignore that.

Subramanian did not clarify which inflation rate he had in mind – was it CPI inflation, WPI inflation, or inflation based on the GDP deflator? Till February 2011, India measured its inflation based on the WPI,[iii]  after which India started to measure inflation using CPI for urban and rural areas and a combined CPI. Before 2011, India used to measure CPI for industrial and agricultural workers. Subramanian also did not clarify why he used the average inflation rate from 1960 onwards.

I look at the inflation using the CPI, WPI and the GDP deflator in my computations. The source of my data is the World Bank Indicators.[iv] My reason for doing so is that the database reports the data on a consistent base, and I don’t have to worry about changing the bases to get a consistent time series of the CPI.

I first look at CPI inflation for India, USA and Euro area for varying time periods.




Nowhere in Figure 1 do we find the average inflation rate for the USA at 2% except in the period 2000 onwards. But in that period, India’s inflation was 6.1%, much less than the 7.5% assumed by Subramanian.

So, how much higher is India’s and USA’s current inflation rate compared to their long-run averages (as reported in Figure 1 above)? Subramanian said that India’s current inflation rate is 4% higher than its long-run average while that of the US is 400% higher. Let me take India’s current inflation rate at 7.8% and US’s at 8.5%, and compare it to each country’s long-run average.




Despite the difference in numbers, Subramanian is correct in spirit – the percentage difference between the current rate of inflation and the long-run average rate is much higher for the USA than it is for India for each of the time periods that we have considered.

Let us see if this changes if I use the WPI and the GDP deflator to estimate the inflation rate. I compute the rates of inflation using a trend equation. The US does not report WPI inflation, which is absent in Figure 3.

 


By and large, the story remains the same: the percentage difference between the current inflation rate and the long-run average rate remains higher for the USA than for India. The numbers don’t match with those aggressively put forward by Subramanian. This discrepancy in numbers is disappointing especially bearing in how scathing he was in his criticism of CMIE data on unemployment.

Apart from the data, the more critical question that should be asked is if we should be happy that the USA’s inflation rate is higher than its long-run average by a margin substantially greater than it is for India. Is it a matter of satisfaction that the US is doing worse even if India’s inflation is high? Would an Indian consumer enjoy a feeling of schadenfreude from knowing that the average US consumer is much worse off? This cartoon by Cartoonist Alok (@caricatured) answers these questions much better:




Economic Situation in the US and India

The other problem with Subramanian’s comparison of the Indian and USA inflation rates is that he does not seem to compare the prevailing economic situation in the two countries. The US economy is currently operating very close to its potential level of Real GDP, a situation when high inflation is likely to be a problem. As Bordoloi et al (2009)[v] note that “potential output is the maximum output an economy could produce without putting pressure on the price level. It is that level of output at which the aggregate demand and supply in the economy are balanced”. They further point out that “When the actual output exceeds the potential output, i.e. the output gap becomes positive, the rising demand leads to an increase in the price level…Such instances are seen as a source for inflationary pressures and as a signal for the central bank to tighten monetary policy”. Figure 4 below shows the output gap measured as

Output Gap (%) = [(Real GDP-Potential Real GDP)/(Potential Real GDP)]*100

The horizontal line at 0.00 is where the two measures of GDP are equal. The figure shows that the US economy is operating very close to its potential output level, possibly leading to rising inflation.




The low unemployment rate in the US economy is a concomitant of this narrowing of the output gap. In July 2022, against all expectations, the US added 580,000 jobs pushing the unemployment rate down to a half-century low.[vi]


India does not report real potential GDP on a regular basis, but the RBI’s Report on Currency and Finance states that “…during the pandemic period, a negative output gap of about 4-6 per cent per quarter during Q2:2020-21 through Q1:2021-22 opened up” (page 18). [vii] These estimates were reported over a year back and it is not known how much of the negative output gap has been bridged and whether this is leading to high inflation. The following chart from the aforementioned RBI’s Report on Currency and Finance shows that the unemployment rate in March 2022 was close to 8%. The CMIE reported that 13 million jobs were lost in June 2022.[viii]



Comparing the conditions in the US and India shows that the situation prevailing in the two economies is quite clearly different. The US economy seems to be operating close to its potential, which is leading to high inflation. On the other hand, India does not seem to be operating close to its potential (as seen by the unemployment rates), and hence its inflation probably requires a different explanation. A simplistic comparison of inflation rates in the two countries (as was done by Subramanian) and then claiming that India is in a much better position is not very helpful.

Saturday 7 August 2021

The 2012 and 2017 Elections in Uttar Pradesh

 

Introduction

Even though the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh are still some months away, aggressive campaigning for it, at least, by the BJP has begun in earnest. The Chief Minister of the state has led the early charge with frequent so-called “impact features” on numerous TV channels (Bajpai, 2021). Interviews of the Chief Minister have been conducted on “friendly” channels. These elections have assumed great significance given the humbling defeat that the BJP suffered in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala. In 2017, the BJP was the challenger party in UP but is now the incumbent with all the attendant anti-incumbency disadvantages. Add to that the serious misgivings with respect to handling the Covid situation, the BJP may need to work doubly hard to retain its advantage in the state (Ranjan et al, 2021). Of course, voters in India are not known to have a long memory of their suffering and have been willing to put their faith in Prime Minister Modi. Despite the immense suffering caused by the demonetisation in 2016, voters rewarded the BJP with a thumping majority in UP. It may not be that easy to deflect attention from the ravages of Covid and, unless the BJP successfully diverts attention away from this issue, it might face a backlash. This diversion has already begun with the announcement of a population policy that “could propose to limit the benefits of state schemes only to those with two children or less” (Shrivastava, 2021). India itself has had an unfortunate experience with such coercive population policies during the Emergency years and, hence, it is a surprise that such a policy is being revived. The poster boy of such policies, China, has recently relaxed this policy after much suffering. The film One Child Nation (IMDB, undated; possibly, still available on Amazon Prime) exposes the brutality of this policy in detail. Despite evidence that such coercive population measures lead to much suffering (Göttmark, 2021), in UP, these will serve to move the discussion away from Covid-related criticism against the government.

This blog post does not dive into any crystal-ball gazing about the likely outcome of the UP Assembly Elections: there is much that can change over the next few months. Rather, I propose to look back at the last two assembly elections in UP to highlight some of its salient features. I look at all the candidates in the elections of 2012 and 2017 and try to draw out some statistical characteristics. All of the data that I have used come from two sources: (1) Myneta.info (undated) (2) Bhogale et al (2019).

Distribution of Seats

Table 1 provides a distribution of seats won/lost/contested in 2012 and 2017. Fig. 1 focuses on the wins of the major parties.

Table 1: Distribution of Seats





The BJP was the challenger in 2017 having won only 47 seats in the 2012 elections with barely 12% of the candidates that it fielded being successful. The incumbent in 2017 was the Samajwadi Party (SP) which had secured 223 seats in the 2012 elections. The tables were completely turned in 2017 with the BJP winning 312 seats: a whopping 81% of the candidates that it fielded won. The SP was reduced to just 47 seats with the INC and BSP failing to protect what they had won in 2012.

Anti-incumbency

The anti-incumbency picture is starkly visible in Table 2.

Table 2: Anti-incumbency


In 2012, 109 of the 209 incumbents (37.5%) retained their seats. The anti-incumbency effect was very strong in 2017 and only 81 out of 317 incumbents (25.5%) retained their seats. This is, of course, candidate-level incumbency. If one looks at the party-level incumbency we see a regular alternating of the ruling party: (a) BJP is currently ruling during the course of the 17th Assembly (2017-2122) (b) SP ruled during the 16th Assembly (2012-2017) (3) BSP ruled during the 15th Assembly (2007-2012) (4) BSP and SP ruled during the 14th Assembly (2002-2007) and (5) the BJP and BSP ruled during the 13th Assembly (1996-2002) (Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly, undated). This shows that no political party has ruled the state for two terms at a stretch and the BJP will need to fight against this long history in the forthcoming elections.

Male and Female Candidates

The number of women candidates fielded by the various parties has remained abysmally low in both the elections. Table 3 gives the gender distribution of candidates.

Table 3: Gender Distribution


Overall, women candidates accounted for just 8% of the total in 2012, which increased marginally to 9% in 2017. BSP, despite being headed by a woman, has had the fewest number of women candidates with the other three parties accounting for similar percentages. Considering winning candidates, there were 33 (8% of 403) winning women candidates in 2012 and 40 (10% of 403) in 2017

 Muslim Candidates

The Muslim population is almost 20% of UP’s total population (Census, 2011). Table 4 shows the distribution of Muslim candidates across the major political parties. It may be noted that the data sources I have used do not separate out candidates by religion. I have identified Muslim candidates on the basis of their names. Of course, it is difficult to be absolutely certain that a candidate’s religion has been correctly identified on the basis of name alone.

Table 4: Muslim Candidates



The BSP, INC, and SP are seen to be selecting Muslim candidates keeping in mind the share of the Muslim population in UP.  The position of the BJP is especially egregious. In 2012, it selected a mere 2.6% of candidates who were Muslim and, in 2017, it did not see it fit to select even one Muslim candidate (Times of India, 2017).

Winning Muslim Candidates

Representation of Muslims in the Assembly has remained below their share of population for quite some time in UP. Table 5 gives information on winning Muslim candidates.

Table 5: Winning Muslim Candidates


2012 witnessed the highest ever share of Muslims in the Assembly of UP this was probably as close as it has ever got to the share of the Muslim population in the state. However, 5 years later in 2017, this share had plummetted to just under 6%. This is the lowest it has reached since 1992 (Saldhana, 2017).

Assets of Candidates

As per the latest notification of the Law Ministry, the ceiling on expenditure for Assembly elections in UP is placed at Rs. 31 lakh (The Hindu, 2020). Studies have shown that the actual expenditure carried out by candidates is much in excess of what is permissible. For instance, “The legal expenditure limit for an assembly election in Mumbai in 2014 was Rs 35 lakh. Major contenders… spent between Rs 1 crore and Rs 16 crore…the legal and accounted expenses of candidates…represent...less than 1/30th or 1/50th of the overall amount” (Chauchard, 2018). It is not clear where the resources for the excess expenditures come from, but, certainly, having a large amount of personal assets would be an advantage. Table 6 gives details of assets of candidates

Table 6: Distribution of Candidates by Assets



The largest number of candidates belong to the categories Assets-2, Assets-3 and Assets-4 for both the elections. In 2012, the modal asset code for SP was Assets-4 with 187 candidates while in, 2017, this same asset code was the mode for the BJP with 196 candidates.

It is interesting to see if the personal wealth of candidates translates into victories. Table 7 gives some information.

Table 7: Distribution of Winners by Assets


82% of the winning candidates came from the categories Assets-3 and Assets-4. In 2017, the numbers in the Assets-3 and Assets-4 category had fallen by 32% and 7%, respectively, while those in Assets-5 and Assets-6 had risen by 82% and 100% respectively.

Criminal Cases

Vaishnav (2012) argues that parties are attracted to candidates with criminal records because they have access to independent sources of wealth that allow them to function as self-financing candidates. Aidt et al (2011) show that political parties are more likely to field candidates with criminal charges when confronted with greater electoral uncertainty. Table 8 now looks at the criminal cases associated with candidates of different political parties.

Table 8: Criminal Cases facing Candidates



Expectedly, the largest number of candidates have no cases registered against them. Significant changes from one election to the next are visible in the table above. The number of candidates with 1-2 cases has declined in 2017 by 37% as compared to 2012; the numbers with 3-4 cases have fallen by 31%; the number of those with 5 cases has remained the same. But, it should be noted, the decrease has taken place generally in the case of Other Candidates. For instance, the number of BJP, BSP, and SP candidates with 1-2 candidates has risen by 47%, 43%, and by 8% respectively.

Does criminality translate into success in elections? I can report that the number of winners with no criminal case registered against them has risen from 220 in 2012 to 330 in 2017, an increase of 50%. Naturally, the number of winners with at least one criminal case registered against them has dropped substantially.

Education

Table 9 reports the educational qualifications of the candidates in 2012 and 2017.

Table 9: Educational Qualifications of Candidates


The percentages of candidates in each category reveal only minor changes over the two elections. The largest change is that there were 2.41% more candidates with post-graduate qualifications in 2017 as compared to 2012. Assuming a value of 7.5 years of education for those in the 5th-10th pass category, 12 years for 12th pass, 15 years for Graduate, 17 years for Post-graduate and 21 years for Doctorate, the weighted average of years of education in 2012 was 11.08 years which has increased to 11.46 years in 2017, an increase of 3.4%. Among the winners, the average years of education was 12.89 years in 2012 and 14.03 years in 2017.

 Comparison: Winners versus Losers

The final section of this note compares winners and losers on the basis of some of the characteristics that we have discussed above. We wish to examine if there is a significant difference between the assets, the number of Criminal Cases, and educational levels of those who won the elections in 2012 and 2017. Table 10 reports the results of the Independent Samples T-test.

Table 10: Difference between and Winners and Losers


The results of Table 10 tell us that:

1.   The winners had Rs. 23 million more in assets in 2012 as compared to losers and Rs. 43 million more in assets in 2017.

2.  The winners had 1.12 more criminal cases registered against them in 2012 and 0.71 more criminal cases in 2017

3.   Winners had education levels above 12th pass in 2012 and levels very close to graduation in 2017.

The differences between the winners and losers were significant at the 1% level of significance.

Conclusion

If, in West Bengal, the BJP wished to breach the TMC castle, in UP, it will want to protect its own castle. Far too much is at stake for both Prime Minister Modi and Chief Minister Aditynath to permit any weakening of their hold in the state. The local elections that have taken place earlier this year have shown that the BJP might have a fight on its hands with the Samajwadi Party claiming victory in the Gram Panchayat elections (Indian Express, 2021) though the BJP won big in the Zila Parishad chairman polls (Shah, 2021). Whether these elections show any pointers to what is likely to happen in the Assembly elections is debatable. What is quite certain is that the UP Assembly Elections will be highly contested and, it will not be a surprise, if they are highly divisive.

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