READING THE TEA LEAVES: Recent Bye-elections in India

The recent bye-election results where the BJP lost in many constituencies has brought forth a flood of analysis.  None of these has been wholly convincing and much that has been spoken on the news channels has seemed like divining an explanation from the pattern of tea leaves left behind in a teacup. Before I plunge into my own analysis of the bye-elections, the question to ask is whether the results we have just seen are very different from the results of past bye elections.

In the table below, I confine my attention to bye-elections (both parliamentary and assembly) held within roughly six months of general elections. I look at the bye-elections performance of the leading party of the coalition which won the preceding parliamentary elections.

Year of General Elections	Lead Party in Winning Coalition	Number of Bye-Elections	Bye-Elections Won by Lead Party in Winning Coalition
1999	BJP	31	9 (29%)
2004	INC	46	16 (35%)
2009	INC	83	21 (25%)
2014	BJP	51	18 (35%)

The results of the Table suggest that the performance of the BJP in the recently held bye-elections has been similar to such performances in the past. There does seem to be a tendency for the lead party to lose bye-elections held immediately after general elections. But there is one important difference: none of the lead parties in the elections of 1999, 2004 and 2009 had performed as well as the BJP had in 2014. The point has often been made but it’s worth repeating: the BJP won a majority on its own in 2014 unlike the INC in 2004 and 2009 or the BJP in 1999. In light of such exceptional performance by the BJP in the general elections in 2014, it is intriguing that it suddenly lost favour in many of the bye-elections held recently. This would have made sense if the BJP had committed some horrible blunder since forming the government in New Delhi. That is clearly not the case. In fact, the BJP government has done little wrong till now. Prime Minister Modi himself has been very dignified in his role so far. I don’t quite agree with the criticism that the Modi-magic has faded. It well might fade over the next few years but I don’t think that has happened just yet. Still, I do find amusing the strenuous efforts of the BJP spokesman (Nalin Kohli on NDTV) to protect Modi from any blame for the defeats in the bye-elections. As always, in India, the top leadership can never be blamed for poor electoral performance. In any case, the point I would like to emphasise is that there has been no reason for voters to have been disillusioned by the performance of the BJP.

Have the opposition parties suddenly been rejuvenated? The Congress still seems to be in complete shambles and, with Rahul Gandhi reluctant to take on any kind of responsibility, the party is bereft of any obvious leader. Some have suggested that it is the very absence of the Gandhis in the campaign for the bye-elections that might have helped the Congress. This might well be the case, but we might need to have the Gandhis remain absent from the next few elections to verify this hypothesis. Likewise, not much has changed as far as the Samajwadi Party is concerned. How could a party which was so reviled during and immediately after the general elections suddenly stage a comeback? 

Is it possible that the BJP suffered from over-confidence? Was the party hoping to ride on the momentum of the general elections results to see it through the bye-elections? My feeling is that there might have been some amount of over-confidence on the part of BJP, both, in its own ability, and in the lack of it among the opposition parties. The fact that none of the stalwarts of the BJP campaigned in the elections seems to point towards the possibility that these elections were perhaps taken lightly. I am, of course, discounting the whispers about some top leaders (e.g. Rajnath Singh) being miffed that their relatives were not selected as candidates. Certainly, the BJP’s biggest asset – Narendra Modi – was also missing in the campaigning. If the BJP suffered because of Modi’s absence, then this excessive dependence on him must be a cause of great worry for the party. With a full time day job as Prime Minister of the country, Narendra Modi will obviously not have the amount of time for campaigning that he had during the general elections. BJP will have to win with its B-team led by Amit Shah.

The final issue I want to touch on is the platform on which the bye-elections were fought. The general elections of April and May 2014 were fought on a strong platform of development and Modi never once wavered from it during the campaigning. What exactly was the electoral platform during the bye-elections? Was it governance, fight against corruption and development once again? If it was, none of it made any news. An important problem for the BJP was that its favourite punching bag – the Gandhi family and the failings of the UPA government –, that was so effective during the general elections, had now become irrelevant. A new target was required for their campaign and they reverted to the dangerous communal strategy. Thus, the ridiculous ‘love jihad’ campaign was conceived, which garnered much (adverse) publicity for Yogi Adityanath, BJP’s main propagandist in Uttar Pradesh. Since the Uttar Pradesh campaign was in the exclusive hands of Amit Shah, it is safe to assume that he had approved the ‘love jihad’ agenda of the rabid Yogi. This is where I begin to have serious misgivings about the BJP. Handing over the entire reins of the BJP’s electoral campaign to Amit Shah, who had fallen foul of the law even during the general elections, is a recipe for disaster. He might still win the forthcoming assembly elections for the BJP, but his presence runs completely against the development agenda that Narendra Modi and other BJP leaders have adopted for their government. It is in this context that another disturbing thought comes to mind and that is Modi’s acquiescence in the campaign run by Yogi Adityanath. By all reckoning, the ‘love jihad’ campaign contradicts the mantra of Sabka ka saath, sabka vikas that Modi has espoused so energetically since coming to power. Modi’s effort at inclusiveness is further reinforced in his recent interview with Fareed Zakaria on CNN where he has been so strong in his support for the Muslim community that it would warm the cockles of the most ardent secular person’s heart. Given Modi’s style of functioning, which generally involves micromanaging as well as enforcing tight control over his colleagues and administrators, I cannot believe that Modi was unaware of the kind of campaign being run in Uttar Pradesh. Why then did he not put a stop to the regressive and puerile ‘love jihad’ nonsense that was being spewed out? His silence has been deeply disappointing and disturbing to all those who might have supported his secular development agenda and those who would have voted for him in the fond hope that divisive politics, as represented by the Hindutva groups, was a thing of the past.

Likewise, Rajnath Singh’s apparently smart comment “What is ‘love jihad’?” was absurd. Something is seriously wrong if the home minister of the country has no information about such a divisive campaign being run by his own party. Even if he were derelict in his duties as home minister, surely, as a member of the RSS, he would have known about the campaign (See here). 

In conclusion, I have to confess that I am no closer to an answer as to why the BJP performed poorly in the bye-elections. There are many possible reasons, all with some element of truth. If I had to, I would focus on two possible reasons (apart from the fact that all leading parties perform poorly in bye-elections):

1. Modi has been and will remain a significant contributor to the BJP’s electoral fortunes but he was not available for campaigning in the bye-elections. Since he is unlikely to be available for campaigning even in future elections, the BJP will have to come up with a reliable B-team if it is do well in the absence of Modi as the lead campaigner.
2. The secular development platform had served the BJP well in the general elections and also attracted to their fold voters who did not share the religious and divisive agenda of the Hindutva parties. The BJP moved away from this platform in the bye-elections and possibly paid the price for this deviation. If the BJP is to consolidate the electoral gains of the general elections, Prime Minister Modi will have a huge role to play in keeping the BJP to the straight and narrow path of development for all. 

Ferguson, Missouri (USA): A Cautionary Tale for India

Ferguson, Missouri (USA) has been in the news almost continuously since an unarmed black teenager was shot dead by a police officer. As the city has lurched from one protest to another, the muscular action of the police has come in for fierce criticism. Weapons seen in the hands of the police in Ferguson are the same as those used in combat zones (e.g. Iraq) and have come from a Pentagon programme that gave half a billion dollars worth of such equipment to local law enforcement agencies (See here). Equally in the news has been the under-representation of the black community in the governing of Ferguson. The population of the city is 67% black and yet the mayor and the police chief are white; of the six council members, one is black; of the 53 commissioned officers on the police force, three are black (see here). To be fair, it has been argued that Ferguson is an outlier in that, in a large number of cities, the percentage of city council that is black is closely correlated with the percentage of population that is black (See here).  The under- representation of the black community in Ferguson is not an aberration. A similar pattern is discernible at various levels of government. 

Bearing in mind that black population in the USA is about 14% of the total, the following numbers are telling:

1. Out of 709 US cities with population in excess of 50,000 in 2010 (US Census), only 44 had black mayors (Black Demographics).  That is, about 6% of the cities had black mayors.
2. Currently, 3 out of 100 senators are black while 46 out of 435 (10.5%) representatives are black (History House).
3. Blacks make up 38% of the state prison population as compared to whites who are 78% of the population and 35% of prison population (CBS News). 

Do the events in Ferguson hold a cautionary tale for India? India, like the USA, has one strong dominant community and numerous other minorities. Muslims, the strong visible minority community, made up 13.4% of India’s population as per the 2001 census (Census India). Surprisingly, the data for the 2011 census on religious composition of India’s population is not yet available. However, it is fair to assume that the Muslim percentage may have now increased to about 14.5% (The Economist). It would not have escaped the reader that this percentage is very similar to the percentage of blacks in the USA.

Muslim Representation in Indian Parliament and State Assemblies

Among the various aspects of Muslim representation that I consider, the most important is how well is the community represented in the Indian parliament. Figure 1 below gives this information over all elections from 1952 to 2009. 

What is clear from Figure 1 is that Muslims have always been under-represented in all Indian parliaments. Even worse, as the share of Muslims in the population has risen, their representation in the parliament has fallen. Considering the consequences of woefully inadequate representation of blacks in the governing of Ferguson, the picture presented in Figure 1 must give cause for concern. Apart from the paltry number of Muslims holding office, not enough are even selected as candidates for elections. The argument has been made that rather than select candidates for elections on the basis of their religion, it is much better to select competent candidates to fight elections. The BJP’s position on this is best captured by the statement of Vijay Goel, President of Delhi BJP at the time of Delhi assembly elections in 2013: “We don't see the religious factor while picking candidates. We see the winnability of the candidates. We give ticket to those who are deserving” (Indian Express). On the face of it, this seems like a very progressive statement where religious considerations are eschewed and only competence is taken into account. But it does seem odd that the BJP could not find single competent Muslim candidate in Uttar Pradesh for the 2014 parliamentary elections despite the state having 18.5% Muslims in its population. In fact, the BJP has not fielded even one Muslim candidate in numerous Gujarat assembly polls (Hindustan Times). Is it believable that, for the last decade or more, Gujarat has not thrown up a single competent Muslim candidate? 

The situation with respect to representation of Muslims in the state assemblies is no different. Figure 2 below gives details for some states.

It will be noticed that the line depicting Muslim MLAs (%) lies entirely below the Muslim Population (%) line (except for Kerala). As before, this shows that there is under-representation of the Muslim population in the state assemblies as well.

Muslim Representation in Administrative and Police Services

Having considered the position of Muslim participation in Indian politics, I now turn my attention to administration. Even in administration, the representation of Muslims is woefully inadequate. Naseem Zaidi (Economic and Political Weekly, January 18, 2014) points out that barely 3% of those who pass the IAS exams are Muslims. In 2013, out of the 998 candidates selected for different administrative services, only 28 were Muslims.

Finally, I look at the Indian police. As per the National Crime Record Bureau's publication Crime in India 2013, out of 1,731,537 police personnel in Indian states and union territories, 108,602 were Muslims. In 2001, these numbers were 1,233,157 and 103,545, respectively.  Over the period 2001-2013, the strength of police has increased by 40% while the number of Muslims in the police force has increased by less than 5%. Little wonder that Muslim representation in the police force has declined from 8.4% to 6.2%.

Social and Economic Status of Muslims

Inadequate political representation of the Muslim community must also be seen in conjunction with its social and economic status. One measure of economic status is the level of income of individuals or households. However, since information on income tends to be unreliable, the National Sample Survey reports monthly per capita household consumer expenditure. The latest information available is for 2009-10 (See here). In addition, I also look at education levels, employment levels and prison population of Muslims. Interested readers may look at detailed tables which have been placed in the appendix.

1. Muslims have the lowest monthly per capita household consumer expenditure of Rs. 980 as compared to the level of Rs. 1,128 for all persons irrespective of religion. This is 13% below the overall level. Bearing in mind that consumer expenditure is closely related to income, this implies that income levels among Muslims are the lowest among all communities.
2. The percentage of urban male illiterates is the highest among Muslims at 19% as compared to 10% for all religions combined. The percentage of urban Muslims males who have had at least secondary education is 35%, much below the figure for all religions combined of 56%. The percentages for Muslim females are worse. The numbers become even more dismal for graduate levels and above. Clearly, this impacts the prospect for jobs for youth from the Muslim community. There are those who might point that the community is itself to blame for not encouraging education. While this may well be a valid charge, the fact remains that if a large number of youth are uneducated with little prospect of decent jobs, the society as a whole faces a problem.
3. 50% of urban Muslim males are self-employed as compared to the level of 41% for all religions combined while 30% of urban Muslim males have regular employment as compared to the all religions combined figure of 42%. The inability to find regular employment compels Muslim youth to take up self-employment which is possibly low paying.
4. Prison Statistics 2012 of the National Crime Records Bureau reports that 18% of convicts in prisons are Muslim, while the percentage of under-trials is 21%. This is much greater than the percentage of Muslims in India’s population. The parallel with the black community in the USA is unmistakeable. 

Is a Ferguson-like Episode Possible in India?

Ramachandra Guha had written in 2008 “Far from being ‘dominant’ or hegemonic, most Muslims are poor farmers, labourers, artisans and traders. They are massively under-represented in the professions – few, too few, of India’s top lawyers, judges, doctors, and professors are Muslim. The proportion of Muslim parliamentarians and of Muslim civil servants has been steadily declining over time”. It should come as no surprise that my analysis demonstrates that Guha’s statement remains valid even today.

Neither of the two national political parties – the Congress or the BJP – has done much for the genuine improvement of the status of Muslims. The Congress used the community as a means of winning votes but did little for it between elections. In the process, the great democratic idea of secularism become a much abused epithet during the 2014 elections. The BJP’s approach of “Sab Ka Saath Sab Ka Vikaas” (participation of all, development for all) brings in the idea of non-discrimination which is most welcome but, when the playing field is not level for all communities, something more is needed. Also, while it (especially its Prime Minister) espouses a secular development agenda, the BJP’s affinity for aggressive Hindi nationhood (Hindutva) is never too far below the surface. Alongside the mainstream politics in India, there are also widely prevalent and, disturbingly, widely supported, extreme political views with a strong communal agenda. Some of this degenerates into actual violence against the Muslim community. The most recent example of such violence was the fatal lynching of the Muslim tech professional in Pune (See here). Equally disturbing has been the views of organisations closely associated with the BJP, namely, the RSS. While the NDA government and Prime Minister Modi in particular have constantly emphasised the development agenda, their allies have divisive agendas of their own. Consider for example the recent comment about Hindu nation by Mohan Bhagwat of the RSS (See here).

Taking into account the current economic and social status of Muslims, the views of right-wing religious groups and the sporadic violence that targets members of the community, it is not too far-fetched to believe that a Ferguson-like situation may suddenly arise in some part of India. Even worse, the alienation of individuals in the Muslim community could have some extreme consequences not just for the community itself but for the entire Indian society. As Christophe Jaffrelot points out “Most of SIMI’s cadre were…educated Muslims” . It is also extremely disturbing that some youth from the town of Kalyan (near Mumbai) have gone to Iraq to join the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) (See here). As radicalisation of Muslim spreads around the world and as more and more western youth have joined the jihadist movements in Syria and Iraq, will India remain immune to such developments? 

APPENDIX TABLES

Table 1

Monthly Per Household Consumption Expenditure

RELIGION OF HOUSHOLD	RURAL AREAS (Rs.)	URBAN AREAS (Rs.)	RURAL + URBAN AREAS (Rs.)
Hinduism	888	1797	1125
Islam	833	1272	980
Christianity	1296	2053	1543
Sikhism	1498	2180	1659
Others	880	2074	1402
All religions	901	1733	1128

Table 2

Education Levels across Religious Communities

	Hinduism	Islam	Christianity	Sikhism	Others	All
	Not Literate (%)
Rural Male	26	31	14	26	21	26
Urban Male	9	19	6	14	6	10
Rural Female	51	53	23	40	43	50
Urban Female	22	35	12	24	15	24
	Secondary Education and Above (%)
Rural Male	29	19	38	33	29	28
Urban Male	59	35	63	60	71	56
Rural Female	15	9	31	28	16	15
Urban Female	46	27	55	51	55	44

 Table 3

Employment in Urban Areas

	Self-employed (%)		Regular Employee (%)		Casual Labour (%)
	Male	Female	Male	Female	Male	Female
Hinduism	40	39	44	40	16	21
Islam	50	60	30	22	20	18
Christianity	29	28	45	61	26	11
Sikhism	44	52	35	37	20	11
Others	41	34	44	45	15	21
All	41	41	42	39	17	20

Table 4

Prison Characteristics in 2012

	Hindu	Muslim	Sikh	Christians	Others	Total
Convicts (%)	71	18	5	4	2	100
Under-trials (%)	70	21	4	4	1	100
Conviction Rate (%)	51	42	62	57	61	50