Ferguson, Missouri (USA): A Cautionary Tale for India

Ferguson, Missouri (USA) has been in the news almost continuously since an unarmed black teenager was shot dead by a police officer. As the city has lurched from one protest to another, the muscular action of the police has come in for fierce criticism. Weapons seen in the hands of the police in Ferguson are the same as those used in combat zones (e.g. Iraq) and have come from a Pentagon programme that gave half a billion dollars worth of such equipment to local law enforcement agencies (See here). Equally in the news has been the under-representation of the black community in the governing of Ferguson. The population of the city is 67% black and yet the mayor and the police chief are white; of the six council members, one is black; of the 53 commissioned officers on the police force, three are black (see here). To be fair, it has been argued that Ferguson is an outlier in that, in a large number of cities, the percentage of city council that is black is closely correlated with the percentage of population that is black (See here).  The under- representation of the black community in Ferguson is not an aberration. A similar pattern is discernible at various levels of government. 

Bearing in mind that black population in the USA is about 14% of the total, the following numbers are telling:

1. Out of 709 US cities with population in excess of 50,000 in 2010 (US Census), only 44 had black mayors (Black Demographics).  That is, about 6% of the cities had black mayors.
2. Currently, 3 out of 100 senators are black while 46 out of 435 (10.5%) representatives are black (History House).
3. Blacks make up 38% of the state prison population as compared to whites who are 78% of the population and 35% of prison population (CBS News). 

Do the events in Ferguson hold a cautionary tale for India? India, like the USA, has one strong dominant community and numerous other minorities. Muslims, the strong visible minority community, made up 13.4% of India’s population as per the 2001 census (Census India). Surprisingly, the data for the 2011 census on religious composition of India’s population is not yet available. However, it is fair to assume that the Muslim percentage may have now increased to about 14.5% (The Economist). It would not have escaped the reader that this percentage is very similar to the percentage of blacks in the USA.

Muslim Representation in Indian Parliament and State Assemblies

Among the various aspects of Muslim representation that I consider, the most important is how well is the community represented in the Indian parliament. Figure 1 below gives this information over all elections from 1952 to 2009. 

What is clear from Figure 1 is that Muslims have always been under-represented in all Indian parliaments. Even worse, as the share of Muslims in the population has risen, their representation in the parliament has fallen. Considering the consequences of woefully inadequate representation of blacks in the governing of Ferguson, the picture presented in Figure 1 must give cause for concern. Apart from the paltry number of Muslims holding office, not enough are even selected as candidates for elections. The argument has been made that rather than select candidates for elections on the basis of their religion, it is much better to select competent candidates to fight elections. The BJP’s position on this is best captured by the statement of Vijay Goel, President of Delhi BJP at the time of Delhi assembly elections in 2013: “We don't see the religious factor while picking candidates. We see the winnability of the candidates. We give ticket to those who are deserving” (Indian Express). On the face of it, this seems like a very progressive statement where religious considerations are eschewed and only competence is taken into account. But it does seem odd that the BJP could not find single competent Muslim candidate in Uttar Pradesh for the 2014 parliamentary elections despite the state having 18.5% Muslims in its population. In fact, the BJP has not fielded even one Muslim candidate in numerous Gujarat assembly polls (Hindustan Times). Is it believable that, for the last decade or more, Gujarat has not thrown up a single competent Muslim candidate? 

The situation with respect to representation of Muslims in the state assemblies is no different. Figure 2 below gives details for some states.

It will be noticed that the line depicting Muslim MLAs (%) lies entirely below the Muslim Population (%) line (except for Kerala). As before, this shows that there is under-representation of the Muslim population in the state assemblies as well.

Muslim Representation in Administrative and Police Services

Having considered the position of Muslim participation in Indian politics, I now turn my attention to administration. Even in administration, the representation of Muslims is woefully inadequate. Naseem Zaidi (Economic and Political Weekly, January 18, 2014) points out that barely 3% of those who pass the IAS exams are Muslims. In 2013, out of the 998 candidates selected for different administrative services, only 28 were Muslims.

Finally, I look at the Indian police. As per the National Crime Record Bureau's publication Crime in India 2013, out of 1,731,537 police personnel in Indian states and union territories, 108,602 were Muslims. In 2001, these numbers were 1,233,157 and 103,545, respectively.  Over the period 2001-2013, the strength of police has increased by 40% while the number of Muslims in the police force has increased by less than 5%. Little wonder that Muslim representation in the police force has declined from 8.4% to 6.2%.

Social and Economic Status of Muslims

Inadequate political representation of the Muslim community must also be seen in conjunction with its social and economic status. One measure of economic status is the level of income of individuals or households. However, since information on income tends to be unreliable, the National Sample Survey reports monthly per capita household consumer expenditure. The latest information available is for 2009-10 (See here). In addition, I also look at education levels, employment levels and prison population of Muslims. Interested readers may look at detailed tables which have been placed in the appendix.

1. Muslims have the lowest monthly per capita household consumer expenditure of Rs. 980 as compared to the level of Rs. 1,128 for all persons irrespective of religion. This is 13% below the overall level. Bearing in mind that consumer expenditure is closely related to income, this implies that income levels among Muslims are the lowest among all communities.
2. The percentage of urban male illiterates is the highest among Muslims at 19% as compared to 10% for all religions combined. The percentage of urban Muslims males who have had at least secondary education is 35%, much below the figure for all religions combined of 56%. The percentages for Muslim females are worse. The numbers become even more dismal for graduate levels and above. Clearly, this impacts the prospect for jobs for youth from the Muslim community. There are those who might point that the community is itself to blame for not encouraging education. While this may well be a valid charge, the fact remains that if a large number of youth are uneducated with little prospect of decent jobs, the society as a whole faces a problem.
3. 50% of urban Muslim males are self-employed as compared to the level of 41% for all religions combined while 30% of urban Muslim males have regular employment as compared to the all religions combined figure of 42%. The inability to find regular employment compels Muslim youth to take up self-employment which is possibly low paying.
4. Prison Statistics 2012 of the National Crime Records Bureau reports that 18% of convicts in prisons are Muslim, while the percentage of under-trials is 21%. This is much greater than the percentage of Muslims in India’s population. The parallel with the black community in the USA is unmistakeable. 

Is a Ferguson-like Episode Possible in India?

Ramachandra Guha had written in 2008 “Far from being ‘dominant’ or hegemonic, most Muslims are poor farmers, labourers, artisans and traders. They are massively under-represented in the professions – few, too few, of India’s top lawyers, judges, doctors, and professors are Muslim. The proportion of Muslim parliamentarians and of Muslim civil servants has been steadily declining over time”. It should come as no surprise that my analysis demonstrates that Guha’s statement remains valid even today.

Neither of the two national political parties – the Congress or the BJP – has done much for the genuine improvement of the status of Muslims. The Congress used the community as a means of winning votes but did little for it between elections. In the process, the great democratic idea of secularism become a much abused epithet during the 2014 elections. The BJP’s approach of “Sab Ka Saath Sab Ka Vikaas” (participation of all, development for all) brings in the idea of non-discrimination which is most welcome but, when the playing field is not level for all communities, something more is needed. Also, while it (especially its Prime Minister) espouses a secular development agenda, the BJP’s affinity for aggressive Hindi nationhood (Hindutva) is never too far below the surface. Alongside the mainstream politics in India, there are also widely prevalent and, disturbingly, widely supported, extreme political views with a strong communal agenda. Some of this degenerates into actual violence against the Muslim community. The most recent example of such violence was the fatal lynching of the Muslim tech professional in Pune (See here). Equally disturbing has been the views of organisations closely associated with the BJP, namely, the RSS. While the NDA government and Prime Minister Modi in particular have constantly emphasised the development agenda, their allies have divisive agendas of their own. Consider for example the recent comment about Hindu nation by Mohan Bhagwat of the RSS (See here).

Taking into account the current economic and social status of Muslims, the views of right-wing religious groups and the sporadic violence that targets members of the community, it is not too far-fetched to believe that a Ferguson-like situation may suddenly arise in some part of India. Even worse, the alienation of individuals in the Muslim community could have some extreme consequences not just for the community itself but for the entire Indian society. As Christophe Jaffrelot points out “Most of SIMI’s cadre were…educated Muslims” . It is also extremely disturbing that some youth from the town of Kalyan (near Mumbai) have gone to Iraq to join the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) (See here). As radicalisation of Muslim spreads around the world and as more and more western youth have joined the jihadist movements in Syria and Iraq, will India remain immune to such developments? 

APPENDIX TABLES

Table 1

Monthly Per Household Consumption Expenditure

RELIGION OF HOUSHOLD	RURAL AREAS (Rs.)	URBAN AREAS (Rs.)	RURAL + URBAN AREAS (Rs.)
Hinduism	888	1797	1125
Islam	833	1272	980
Christianity	1296	2053	1543
Sikhism	1498	2180	1659
Others	880	2074	1402
All religions	901	1733	1128

Table 2

Education Levels across Religious Communities

	Hinduism	Islam	Christianity	Sikhism	Others	All
	Not Literate (%)
Rural Male	26	31	14	26	21	26
Urban Male	9	19	6	14	6	10
Rural Female	51	53	23	40	43	50
Urban Female	22	35	12	24	15	24
	Secondary Education and Above (%)
Rural Male	29	19	38	33	29	28
Urban Male	59	35	63	60	71	56
Rural Female	15	9	31	28	16	15
Urban Female	46	27	55	51	55	44

 Table 3

Employment in Urban Areas

	Self-employed (%)		Regular Employee (%)		Casual Labour (%)
	Male	Female	Male	Female	Male	Female
Hinduism	40	39	44	40	16	21
Islam	50	60	30	22	20	18
Christianity	29	28	45	61	26	11
Sikhism	44	52	35	37	20	11
Others	41	34	44	45	15	21
All	41	41	42	39	17	20

Table 4

Prison Characteristics in 2012

	Hindu	Muslim	Sikh	Christians	Others	Total
Convicts (%)	71	18	5	4	2	100
Under-trials (%)	70	21	4	4	1	100
Conviction Rate (%)	51	42	62	57	61	50