The recent bye-election
results where the BJP lost in many constituencies has brought forth a flood of
analysis. None of these has been wholly
convincing and much that has been spoken on the news channels has seemed like
divining an explanation from the pattern of tea leaves left behind in a teacup.
Before I plunge into my own analysis of the bye-elections, the question to ask
is whether the results we have just seen are very different from the results of
past bye elections.
In the table below, I
confine my attention to bye-elections (both parliamentary and assembly) held
within roughly six months of general elections. I look at the bye-elections
performance of the leading party of the coalition which won the preceding parliamentary
elections.
Year of
General Elections
|
Lead Party in
Winning Coalition
|
Number of
Bye-Elections
|
Bye-Elections
Won by Lead Party in Winning Coalition
|
1999
|
BJP
|
31
|
9
(29%)
|
2004
|
INC
|
46
|
16
(35%)
|
2009
|
INC
|
83
|
21
(25%)
|
2014
|
BJP
|
51
|
18
(35%)
|
The results of the Table suggest that the performance of the BJP in the recently held bye-elections has
been similar to such performances in the past. There does seem to be a tendency
for the lead party to lose bye-elections held immediately after general
elections. But there is one important difference: none of the lead parties in
the elections of 1999, 2004 and 2009 had performed as well as the BJP had in
2014. The point has often been made but it’s worth repeating: the BJP won a
majority on its own in 2014 unlike the INC in 2004 and 2009 or the BJP in 1999.
In light of such exceptional performance by the BJP in the general elections in
2014, it is intriguing that it suddenly lost favour in many of the
bye-elections held recently. This would have made sense if the BJP had committed
some horrible blunder since forming the government in New Delhi. That is
clearly not the case. In fact, the BJP government has done little wrong till
now. Prime Minister Modi himself has been very dignified in his role so far. I
don’t quite agree with the criticism that the Modi-magic has faded. It well
might fade over the next few years but I don’t think that has happened just
yet. Still, I do find amusing the strenuous efforts of the BJP spokesman (Nalin
Kohli on NDTV) to protect Modi from any blame for the defeats in the
bye-elections. As always, in India, the top leadership can never be blamed for
poor electoral performance. In any case, the point I would like to emphasise is
that there has been no reason for voters to have been disillusioned by the performance
of the BJP.
Have the opposition parties
suddenly been rejuvenated? The Congress still seems to be in complete shambles and,
with Rahul Gandhi reluctant to take on any kind of responsibility, the party is
bereft of any obvious leader. Some have suggested that it is the very absence
of the Gandhis in the campaign for the bye-elections that might have helped the
Congress. This might well be the case, but we might need to have the Gandhis
remain absent from the next few elections to verify this hypothesis. Likewise,
not much has changed as far as the Samajwadi Party is concerned. How could a
party which was so reviled during and immediately after the general elections
suddenly stage a comeback?
Is it possible that the
BJP suffered from over-confidence? Was the party hoping to ride on the momentum
of the general elections results to see it through the bye-elections? My
feeling is that there might have been some amount of over-confidence on the
part of BJP, both, in its own ability, and in the lack of it among the
opposition parties. The fact that none of the stalwarts of the BJP campaigned
in the elections seems to point towards the possibility that these elections
were perhaps taken lightly. I am, of course, discounting the whispers about
some top leaders (e.g. Rajnath Singh) being miffed that their relatives were
not selected as candidates. Certainly, the BJP’s biggest asset – Narendra Modi
– was also missing in the campaigning. If the BJP suffered because of Modi’s
absence, then this excessive dependence on him must be a cause of great worry
for the party. With a full time day job as Prime Minister of the country,
Narendra Modi will obviously not have the amount of time for campaigning that
he had during the general elections. BJP will have to win with its B-team led
by Amit Shah.
The final issue I want
to touch on is the platform on which the bye-elections were fought. The general
elections of April and May 2014 were fought on a strong platform of development
and Modi never once wavered from it during the campaigning. What exactly was
the electoral platform during the bye-elections? Was it governance, fight
against corruption and development once again? If it was, none of it made any
news. An important problem for the BJP was that its favourite punching bag –
the Gandhi family and the failings of the UPA government –, that was so
effective during the general elections, had now become irrelevant. A new target
was required for their campaign and they reverted to the dangerous communal
strategy. Thus, the ridiculous ‘love jihad’ campaign was conceived, which
garnered much (adverse) publicity for Yogi Adityanath, BJP’s main propagandist
in Uttar Pradesh. Since the Uttar Pradesh campaign was in the exclusive hands
of Amit Shah, it is safe to assume that he had approved the ‘love jihad’ agenda
of the rabid Yogi. This is where I begin to have serious misgivings about the
BJP. Handing over the entire reins of the BJP’s electoral campaign to Amit Shah,
who had fallen foul of the law even during the general elections, is a recipe
for disaster. He might still win the forthcoming assembly elections for the
BJP, but his presence runs completely against the development agenda that
Narendra Modi and other BJP leaders have adopted for their government. It is in
this context that another disturbing thought comes to mind and that is Modi’s
acquiescence in the campaign run by Yogi Adityanath. By all reckoning, the
‘love jihad’ campaign contradicts the mantra of Sabka ka saath, sabka vikas that Modi has espoused so energetically
since coming to power. Modi’s effort at inclusiveness is further reinforced in his
recent interview with Fareed Zakaria on CNN where he has been so strong in his support for the Muslim community that it
would warm the cockles of the most ardent secular person’s heart. Given Modi’s
style of functioning, which generally involves micromanaging as well as
enforcing tight control over his colleagues and administrators, I cannot
believe that Modi was unaware of the kind of campaign being run in Uttar
Pradesh. Why then did he not put a stop to the regressive and puerile ‘love
jihad’ nonsense that was being spewed out? His silence has been deeply
disappointing and disturbing to all those who might have supported his secular
development agenda and those who would have voted for him in the fond hope that
divisive politics, as represented by the Hindutva groups, was a thing of the
past.
Likewise, Rajnath
Singh’s apparently smart comment “What is ‘love jihad’?” was absurd. Something
is seriously wrong if the home minister of the country has no information about
such a divisive campaign being run by his own party. Even if he were derelict
in his duties as home minister, surely, as a member of the RSS, he would have
known about the campaign (See here).
In conclusion, I have
to confess that I am no closer to an answer as to why the BJP performed poorly
in the bye-elections. There are many possible reasons, all with some element of
truth. If I had to, I would focus on two possible reasons (apart from the fact
that all leading parties perform poorly in bye-elections):
- Modi has been and will remain a significant contributor to the BJP’s electoral fortunes but he was not available for campaigning in the bye-elections. Since he is unlikely to be available for campaigning even in future elections, the BJP will have to come up with a reliable B-team if it is do well in the absence of Modi as the lead campaigner.
- The secular development platform had served the BJP well in the general elections and also attracted to their fold voters who did not share the religious and divisive agenda of the Hindutva parties. The BJP moved away from this platform in the bye-elections and possibly paid the price for this deviation. If the BJP is to consolidate the electoral gains of the general elections, Prime Minister Modi will have a huge role to play in keeping the BJP to the straight and narrow path of development for all.
