Anti-incumbency is the general norm in Indian elections unlike in the USA where the incumbent has a much greater chance of being voted back to office. Table below shows this:
By and large only 50% of candidates are re-elected. The re-election rates vary across states from a high of 73% for West Bengal to a low of 26% for Haryana.
A colleague of mine (Mala Lalvani) and I have been studying anti-incumbency for a while now. The following figure derived from our study shows evidence of anti-incumbency:
By and large only 50% of candidates are re-elected. The re-election rates vary across states from a high of 73% for West Bengal to a low of 26% for Haryana.
A colleague of mine (Mala Lalvani) and I have been studying anti-incumbency for a while now. The following figure derived from our study shows evidence of anti-incumbency:
The figure shows that non-incumbents have a 58% chance of winning against a 41% chance for incumbents.
In the context of the present elections, there has been a lot of discussion about the level of turnout and anti-incumbency. The general belief is that the greater the dissatisfaction with the political party in power, the more people come out and vote against it. Average voter turnout in Indian elections since 1980 has been about 61%. We find that voter turnout in excess of 75% can cause a serious dent in the re-election chances of an incumbent. While 75% may not be the magic number to look for, it does seem likely that given high turnouts in the elections of 2014, the ruling party might be in a losing position. Whether that is enough for a decisive victory for the main opposition party we shall find out very soon.
nice analysis of the very likely anti-incumbency result. And the BJP’s manifesto does cause some economic concern, does it not? With regard to the FII inflows, there is a suspicion that the FII inflows over the past months having nothing to with the reviving Indian economy nor with the anticipation of a stable government at the Centre; this is suspected to be in fact political funds stashed abroad being pumped back to fund the elections via the FII route. What do you say? Sounds very interesting and intriguing but can it be true?
ReplyDeletePolitical funds being stashed abroad and being pumped back in time for elections makes for a nice "conspiracy" theory. Problem is how does one find the data. Were these funds always parked abroad or were they sent out recently and are being brought back now?
DeleteYour study about non-incumbent having a having a higher probability of winning can be used in the betting market! Bet on all the non-incumbents, for making money on an aggregate level!
ReplyDeleteGood one, Kamikaze. Only remember (1) no economist made money betting on his or her own predictions/results (2) In every constituency there will be only one incumbent (except when the incumbent does not contest) but numerous non-incumbents since in India most constituencies have multi-party contests - so, you will have to bet money on a lot of non-incumbents.
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